Ramona is not Miami. Nationally, Redfin counts a record 62.6% more home sellers than buyers. Ramona's detached market sits at about 4.4 months supply of inventory, which is balanced, not flooded. What changed is negotiating leverage: homes that closed since late July sold for an average of 96.9% of their original asking price, down from 100% in late spring.
The shift is broadest in San Diego Country Estates, where 20 of 24 homes that closed since late July sold below their original list price, compared with 10 of 28 in late spring. The softest part of the Ramona market is the top end: 43 active listings over $1 million against 29 sales in that range over the past six months.
Short answer for anyone in a hurry: buyers in Ramona have more room to negotiate than they did this spring, but this is not the inventory glut you're reading about in Florida and Texas. The change shows up in one specific place, the gap between what sellers originally ask and what they end up accepting. That gap went from zero to about 3% across Ramona, and closer to 4% in San Diego Country Estates.
I pulled every detached home sale in Ramona 92065 over the last six months from the MLS to check the national headline against what's actually happening here. Here's what I found, including the parts that cut against the headline.
What Redfin found
Redfin's October 14 report estimated 62.6% more home sellers than buyers nationally in September, the widest gap in its records going back to 2013. It was the fourth record month in a row, up from 56.9% in August.
The important detail is what's driving it. This isn't a wave of new sellers. Redfin estimated about 929,000 active buyers in September, the fewest in its records, and the fifth straight monthly decline. Sellers rose only modestly, to about 1.51 million, the most since March 2020. The gap is mostly buyers stepping back because of high costs and economic uncertainty.
Redfin's senior economist Asad Khan summed it up as "a buyer's market born out of caution, not strength." That framing matters for Ramona. A buyer's market only helps buyers who can still afford the payment.
Geography matters too. Redfin classified 41 of the 50 largest metros as buyer's markets, led by Miami at 158.9% more sellers than buyers. The extreme cases are concentrated in the Sun Belt, where builders kept adding new homes as demand cooled. The few remaining seller's markets, including San Francisco and the New York suburbs, share the opposite trait: very little new construction.
Where San Diego fits
| Market (September 2026) | Sellers vs buyers | Redfin classification |
|---|---|---|
| Miami metro | 158.9% more sellers | Buyer's market |
| United States | 62.6% more sellers | Buyer's market |
| San Diego metro | 36.3% more sellers | Buyer's market |
| San Francisco metro | 10.6% fewer sellers | Seller's market |
Source: Redfin buyers vs sellers report, September 2026. Redfin treats more than 10% more sellers than buyers as a buyer's market.
Redfin estimated 8,043 sellers and 5,899 buyers in the San Diego metro. That's a buyer's market by Redfin's definition, but a much milder one than the national number. San Diego County fits the supply-constrained pattern better than the Sun Belt pattern.
Why Ramona doesn't look like Miami
The Sun Belt surplus comes largely from new construction piling up. Ramona doesn't have that pipeline. Of the 147 detached homes that sold in Ramona over the past six months, only 5 were built in 2020 or later. The median sale was built in 1989. Inventory here builds from resale homes only, and San Diego Country Estates is essentially built out.
So instead of Redfin's buyer-to-seller ratio, the better local measure is months supply of inventory: active listings divided by the average number of sales per month. It answers a simple question. If no new listings came on, how long would it take to sell everything currently for sale? Under 3 months generally favors sellers, 3 to 6 is balanced, and over 6 favors buyers.
108 active · 147 sold in 6 months
33 active · 52 sold in 6 months
One honest caveat: Redfin's ratio and months supply aren't the same measurement, so I'm not putting them side by side as if they were. What I can say is that both point the same direction. Supply has loosened compared with this spring, when SDCE readings ran between 2 and 3 months, but Ramona hasn't tipped into the oversupplied territory driving the national headline.
The real change: discounts off original asking
Supply tells you the market is balanced. The original list price tells you who's winning the negotiation. I compared each sale against the price the home first listed at, not the price after reductions, because the after-cut number hides exactly what we're trying to see.
| Detached homes | Late spring (closed Apr 28 to Jul 27) |
Late summer and fall (closed Jul 28 to Oct 26) |
|---|---|---|
| All of Ramona | ||
| Homes sold | 75 | 72 |
| Average sale price vs original asking | 100.0% | 96.9% |
| Sold below original asking | 45% | 57% |
| Median days on market | 13 | 16.5 |
| San Diego Country Estates | ||
| Homes sold | 28 | 24 |
| Average sale price vs original asking | 100.0% | 96.1% |
| Sold below original asking | 36% (10 of 28) | 83% (20 of 24) |
| Median days on market | 23 | 31.5 |
Detached homes 1,000 square feet and larger, Ramona 92065. Compiled from Paragon MLS data, as of October 28, 2026.
Two different patterns are hiding inside those numbers.
Across Ramona, the discount is concentrated in homes that started too high. The typical Ramona home that sold since late July still closed within about 1% of its original price. The 3% average is pulled down by listings that needed bigger cuts to sell. Put plainly: well-priced homes are still selling near asking, and overpriced ones are paying for it.
In San Diego Country Estates, the discount is broad. Five out of six recent SDCE sales closed below original asking, at about 4% under on average. On a typical SDCE home around $818,000, that's roughly $30,000. SDCE homes also took longer to sell, with median days on market rising from 23 to 31.5.
Why would SDCE soften more than the rest of town when its supply is actually a bit tighter? I don't have a clean answer, and I'd rather say that than invent one. My working read is that SDCE homes compete most directly with each other. Similar ages, similar floor plans, the same HOA, the same streets. When a buyer can tour four comparable homes along Barona Mesa Road and Rutherford Road in one afternoon, the seller who priced at spring levels gets compared, side by side, with the one who didn't. That's a hypothesis, not a finding. I'll keep watching it in the monthly reports.
Price cuts on current listings point the same way. Of Ramona's 108 active detached listings, 52 have already reduced their price, with a median cut of about 4%. In SDCE, 19 of 33 active listings have cut, with a median of about 3%.
Where the supply actually sits
Months supply looks very different depending on price range, and this is where the national "buyer's market" headline fits Ramona best.
| Price range | Active listings | Sold, last 6 months | Months supply |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under $800,000 | 37 | 56 | 4.0 |
| $800,000 to $1 million | 28 | 62 | 2.7 |
| $1 million to $1.5 million | 29 | 24 | 7.2 |
| Over $1.5 million | 14 | 5 | 16.8 |
Ramona 92065 detached homes. Active listings by current list price; sales by sold price. Compiled from Paragon MLS data, as of October 28, 2026.
The $800,000 to $1 million range, where a large share of SDCE homes trade, is still on the tight side at 2.7 months. Above $1 million, Ramona is a buyer's market by any measure. Over $1.5 million, five sales in six months is a thin sample, so I'd treat the 16.8 figure as "more than a year of supply" rather than a precise number. Either way, sellers of Ramona's larger acreage and estate properties are competing for a small pool of buyers.
What this means for Ramona sellers
The spring playbook of listing high and letting the market sort it out is costing sellers money now. The data shows homes that priced right from day one still sold close to asking, while the ones that started high gave back more in the end than they would have by pricing realistically up front. The first two to three weeks on market are when a listing gets its most attention, with median days on market across Ramona around 16.
That doesn't mean you need to rush or give your house away. Most Ramona owners have substantial equity, and nothing in this data says prices are falling apart. The median Ramona sale price has held in the $800,000s over the past six months. It does mean your list price should be built from what homes like yours sold for since July, not what they sold for in May.
What this means for Ramona buyers
You have real negotiating room on homes that have been listed for a while, especially ones that have already cut their price once. Over $1 million, you have a lot of it. Asking for seller credits toward closing costs or a rate buydown is a reasonable conversation right now in a way it wasn't in the spring.
The caution: a well-priced home in the $800,000 to $1 million range can still go quickly, and lowballing a correctly priced listing usually just means losing it. And Redfin's point applies here as much as anywhere. More leverage only helps if the monthly payment works. If you're a veteran weighing that math, I walked through it in my post on using a VA loan to buy in Ramona.
As for waiting for prices to drop: I can't tell you where prices go next, and neither can anyone else. What I can tell you is what the market is doing right now, and right now buyers who are ready have more room to negotiate than they've had all year.
The fine print
A few things this data can't tell you. Some of the spring-to-fall shift is seasonal, since Ramona sales usually cool after summer. I'd want to compare original-price discounts year over year before calling this a lasting trend, and I'll be tracking it in the monthly San Diego Country Estates market reports. A single season is a signal worth noticing, not a trend. As I tell people about every market number: give it four to six months heading the same direction before you bet on it.
If you want a straight read on how this applies to your house or your search, I'm happy to look at it with you. I'll give you a straight read on whether it's right for you, including telling you if it's not.
Frequently asked questions
Not by supply. As of October 28, 2026, Ramona detached homes had about 4.4 months supply of inventory, which falls in the 3 to 6 month balanced range. Leverage has shifted toward buyers in a narrower way: homes that closed since late July sold for an average of 96.9% of their original list price, down from 100% in late spring.
Measured against original list price, Ramona detached homes that closed between late July and late October 2026 sold for an average of 96.9% of original asking, about 3% under. The typical home still sold within about 1% of its original price. The average is pulled down by homes that started too high and needed bigger cuts.
Yes, in one important way. In San Diego Country Estates, 20 of 24 detached homes that closed since late July sold below their original list price, averaging about 96% of original asking. In the rest of Ramona, fewer than half of recent sales closed below original asking. SDCE supply is slightly tighter, at about 3.8 months, but the discounting is broader.
Months supply of inventory is the number of active listings divided by the average number of homes sold per month. As of October 28, 2026, Ramona had 108 active detached listings and averaged about 24.5 detached sales per month over the prior six months, for about 4.4 months of supply. Under 3 months generally favors sellers, 3 to 6 is balanced, and over 6 favors buyers.
Nobody can reliably time that, including me. Ramona's median sale price has held in the $800,000s over the past six months while negotiating room has grown. If the monthly payment works for you today, the current market gives you more room to negotiate on homes that have been listed a while. If it doesn't work, waiting for a price drop is a bet, not a plan.
Want a straight read on your situation?
Whether you're pricing a home or deciding how hard to negotiate, I'll walk you through the numbers for your specific house or search.